Top 5 NBA MVP Candidates (December 2021)
Image via NBA.com
We are about 1/3rd of the way through the NBA season, with many players having fantastic seasons. It’s time to start talking about the MVP race and where players stand as of this moment. Here are my current MVP rankings:
5. Trae Young
Per 36 stats:
28.5 PTS, 9.7 AST, 4.3 REB, 59% TS, 53% eFG
There are several players who could go into this 5th spot, as there seems to be a pretty big drop off after the top 4 guys. But Trae Young is certainly deserving of some MVP hype right now despite the Hawks being only 14-14.
Trae has played all 28 games this season and is currently 4th in points per 36 minutes, 2nd in assists per 36 minutes, 2nd in offensive win shares, 4th in offensive box plus-minus, and 3rd in offensive points added. He has become an absolute star offensively in this league, scoring 30+ points in 12 games already this year. He also has maintained some pretty good efficiency despite being a very high volume shooter. Among players attempting 7 or more threes per game, he’s in the top 10 in 3-point percentage.
Trae Young isn’t going to win MVP because defense matters, team record matters, and there are other guys just in a different tier right now. With that being said, he deserves to be mentioned in the conversation and is a borderline top 5 MVP candidate right now.
4. Stephen Curry
Per 36 stats:
28.2 PTS, 6.4 AST, 5.8 REB, 61% TS, 56% eFG
Many will probably think this is too low for Steph. The consensus opinion is that right now the MVP race is between him and KD.
Curry has been awesome this season… 5th in points per 36 minutes, 2nd in offensive box plus-minus, 2nd in offensive points added, 3rd in total points added, 3rd in value over replacement player… he is shooting nearly 40% from three once again despite drawing so much attention from defenses. Steph is absurd, and he has led the Warriors to the best record in the NBA so far.
Now, keep in mind that I already said I think there’s a big drop off after these top 4 guys and all 4 of them are EXTREMELY close, so this is not at all me disrespecting Steph. I wouldn’t have a huge problem putting any of these remaining guys at number 1, and if you asked me a couple weeks ago, Curry probably would have been number 1.
But over his last 8 games, Curry is averaging just 22.6 points and 4.5 assist on 35% FG and 35% 3P. That’s a pretty big cold spell, and I don’t think we should just ignore it completely. If Curry gets back to being amazing the rest of the year and the Warriors remain one of the top teams in the league, he can certainly move back up this list, but other guys in the race have been more consistent.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo
Per 36 stats:
29.8 PTS, 12.8 REB, 6.4 AST, 60% TS, 56% eFG
Another year, another MVP-caliber season for Giannis. He is once again putting up amazing numbers while being outside of the top 50 in minutes per game. He is 1st in the NBA in points per 36 minutes, 2nd in value over replacement player, 3rd in win shares, 2nd in box plus-minus, and 2nd in total points added. The most impressive thing about Giannis is what he does on both ends, as he is top 5 in both offensive and defensive win shares, top 5 in both offensive and defensive box plus-minus, and top 5 in both offensive points added and defensive points saved.
It wasn’t a fantastic start for Giannis or the Bucks this season, as he shot just 49% in his first 13 games and the Bucks were 6-8 after 14 games. However, Giannis is shooting 57% in the 13 games since, and the Bucks are 13-3 in their last 16 games and have jumped up to 2nd in the East standings. When Giannis is on the court this season, the Bucks are outscoring opponents by 10.6 points per 100 possessions. When he’s off the court, Milwaukee is being outscored by 7.0 points per 100 possessions. Giannis should be in all MVP conversations.
2. Nikola Jokic
Per 36 stats:
29.1 PTS, 14.9 REB, 8.2 AST, 66% TS, 64% eFG
It is amazing, but not surprising, how little MVP hype there is for Jokic this season. If the Nuggets were jut a little bit better, he would absolutely be deserving of the number 1 spot on this list, because statistically, he has been the best player in the league this season. He leads the NBA in practically every advanced stat… value over replacement player, offensive win shares, total win shares, win shares per 48 minutes, offensive box plus-minus, defensive box plus-minus, total box plus-minus, offensive points added, defensive points saved, and total points added. He is on pace to have the highest Player Efficiency Rating in the history of the league, and is shooting a ridiculous 58% from the field — 66% from two and 38% from three.
It’s incredible what Jokic is doing and it isn’t being talked about enough. Yes, the Nuggets are just 14-14 currently, and that is the sole reason he’s number two on this list — it’s hard for me to give MVP to someone whose team is barely making the playoffs — but think about where they would be without him. The Nuggets are 28.7 points per 100 possessions better with Jokic on the court compared to when he’s off the court. Let’s compare that to other players on this list… Trae Young makes his team 5.8 points per 100 possessions better, Curry 15.7 points, Giannis 17.6 points, and Durant 10.9 points… Jokic being at 28.7 is absurd.
The Nuggets are just a game and a half out of the 5 seed in the West. If they get there, Jokic is the MVP, but for now I’ll put him at number 2. If you aren’t mentioning him in the MVP conversation, I cannot take you seriously.
1. Kevin Durant
Per 36 stats:
28.8 PTS, 7.6 REB, 5.6 AST, 63% TS, 57% eFG
I don’t think I need to convince anyone how good Kevin Durant is, but here are some numbers just in case you were curious: 1st in points per game, top 5 in offensive box plus-minus and offensive win shares, 4th in both offensive points added and total points added, and 4th in value over replacement player. He has scored 25+ points in 20 of his 26 games and 30+ points in 12 of those games.
Durant is arguably the best scorer this league has ever seen. He remains a killer from the midrange, where he is shooting 55% on almost 7 attempts per game. Even without Kyrie and with Harden not being his usual self as a scorer this season, the Nets are still 20-8 and 1st in the East. Durant gets my MVP vote right now, but Jokic, Giannis, and Steph are right there, and the order could change every single week.
