The Packers Suck At Responding To Adversity
During the Matt LaFleur era in Green Bay, the Packers have not had to face a ton of adversity. Since 2019 (when LaFleur took over), no team has won more regular season games than Green Bay, who has amassed 41 victories during that span.
However, as Mike Tyson once said, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” And it seems that many times when the Packers have gotten punched in the mouth over the last 3+ seasons, they’ve folded.
The Packers have only lost 12 games since 2019 with Aaron Rodgers (excluding the final game of the regular season last year when he only played a half). Of those 12 losses, half of them have been by 14+ points, and in half of them they’ve scored 11 points or fewer. The overall average margin of defeat in those losses is 2 touchdowns. In short, a lot of times when the Packers lose, they don’t just lose, they crap the bed.
And it seems to be a trend that when one big turnover or miscue occurs, the offense cannot move past it. This was on display this past Sunday, when the offense was rolling until Aaron Jones had a goal-line fumble in the middle of the 2nd quarter. Luckily, the Packers held on and won the game, but the offense shut down after that turnover in a way that has become far too familiar.
Before the Aaron Jones fumble, the Packers had scored a touchdown on each of their first two drives and were leading 14-3, and they were about to go up even more. In the 27 plays before the fumble, they put up an elite 0.53 EPA/Play and 59% success rate, converted 5/5 third downs, and averaged 7.5 yards per play.
In the 33 plays after the fumble, the offense put up a putrid -0.46 EPA/Play and 27% success rate, converted 1/9 third downs, and averaged 3.3 yards per play. Woof.
This type of offensive sputter is something that has happened in several of their losses throughout the years after they get punched in the mouth to begin the game or they commit a bad turnover. Here are some examples.
2019 Week 12 (37-8 loss to the 49ers)
On the first drive of the game, Aaron Rodgers fumbled. Green Bay proceeded to go three-and-out on 5 of their next 7 possessions before the half and trailed 23-0 at halftime.
2019 NFC Championship (37-20 loss to the 49ers)
The Packers started horribly and were down 17-0 with 9 minutes left in the half. But they were driving down the field and about to make it a two-score game when a fumbled snap just outside of the red zone gave the ball back to the 49ers.
The Niners kicked a field goal to go up 20-0, but the Packers could still go make it a two-score game before the half, and then they would get the ball to start the second half. However, the final two possessions for Green Bay were an interception and a three-and-out, and the next thing you know it was a 27-0 game at halftime.
2020 Week 6 (38-10 loss to the Buccaneers)
The Green Bay offense had been rolling through their first 4 games of the season, scoring 38 points per game and leading the team to a 4-0 record. The offense started hot in this game as well, putting up a field goal and a touchdown on their first two possessions and the Packers jumped out to a 10-0 lead.
Then, with the ball back and a chance to go up 17-0, Rodgers threw a pick-six, and all of a sudden it was as though the offense was incapable of doing anything. The next possession was another interception, followed by 8 drives that resulted in 0 points and 7 punts. The Packers got outscored 38-0 over the final three quarters and lost 38-10.
On the first two drives before the interception, Green Bay put up 0.41 EPA/Play, a 57% success rate, and 6.9 yards per play. After the interception, those numbers were -0.53 EPA/Play, a 23% success rate, and 1.5 yards per play.
2021 Week 1 (38-3 loss to the Saints)
The Packers struggled out of the gate and trailed 17-3 at halftime. However, they got the ball to start the 2nd half and got to the Saints’ 9-yard line, about to make it a 7-point game. Instead, Rodgers threw a pick, and even though they got the ball right back after that, their final 5 drives went interception, turnover on downs, punt, punt, fumble. They fell apart and lost 38-3.
2021 NFC Divisional Round (13-10 loss to the 49ers)
Green Bay started hot, driving right down the field on the opening drive of the game and going up 7-0. They forced a punt and then were driving again, back in Niners territory.
Then, Marcedes Lewis fumbled, and the Packers folded. Their 8 drives after that would consist of 6 punts and only 3 points, and the Niners won 13-10.
Before the fumble, the Packers offense was at 0.51 EPA/Play, a 64% success rate, and 7.3 yards per play. After the fumble, they would put up -0.22 EPA/Play, a 28% success rate, and 4.0 yards per play.
2022 Week 1 (23-7 loss to the Vikings)
On the Packers’ first offensive play of the game, Rodgers threw a perfect ball to Christian Watson, which was going to be a 75-yard touchdown. Instead, Watson dropped it, and the Packers scored on just 1 of their 9 possessions in the game, losing 23-7.
2022 Week 3 (14-12 win against the Buccaneers)
Green Bay held on and won the game, but as previously mentioned, the offense completely disappeared after the Aaron Jones fumble near the goal line in the middle of the 2nd quarter. They failed to pick up a first down on their next 7 drives, and did not score a point for the remainder of the game.
The Packers offense clearly has a problem responding to adversity, and it is something that must change if they want to win another Super Bowl. You can never go through an entire playoff run without facing some adversity or making a mistake at some point, and they have to do a better job bouncing back.
