7 Predictions for the 2021-22 Packers season

It is one of the most wonderful times of the year — Packers football season. After an offseason full of questions about the future of several Packers stars, the core is back for this season and ready to make another run at a Super Bowl. Here are some predictions about how this season will go:

Packers finish with a 12-5 regular season record

This seems like a pretty safe prediction for a final regular season record prediction for the Packers. They’ve finished 13-3 each of the last 2 seasons and have reached double-digit wins in 9 of the last 10 seasons where Aaron Rodgers was healthy. With an extremely talented roster that includes stars like Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Kenny Clark, and Jaire Alexander, their floor should be about 10-11 wins as long as they stay healthy. They’re a safe bet to be an elite team once again this season.

As good as this team is, the schedule is not easy. The Packers have the 4th most difficult schedule in the league based on their opponents’ records from last year, with several difficult road games against teams such as the Saints, 49ers, Cardinals, Chiefs, and Ravens. It is likely that they lose 2-3 of these games, plus a home game (they play the Seahawks, Rams, and Browns at home), and then 1-2 of their games against division rivals, which are pretty much always close. That leaves them at a likely 4-6 losses, and I’m going in the middle and giving them 5. An easier schedule would make me more confident that they can get the number 1 seed in the NFC again, but they should still be around a top 3 seed.

Aaron Rodgers finishes with 35-40 TDs and 5-7 INTs

Considering that Rodgers ended last season with 48 TD in 16 games, this prediction of 35-40 TD in 17 games may seem a bit low. However, his TD rate of 9.1% last season was the highest of his career and the highest of any QB in a season since Peyton Manning in 2004. Quarterbacks (even the really good ones) just don’t normally throw touchdowns as frequently as Aaron Rodgers did last season, so that number should come down. Instead of 3 touchdowns per game, expect closer to 2, which is still a really good amount (only 10 QBs threw more than 2 touchdowns per game last year).

In addition to this, the Packers signed running back Aaron Jones to a 4-year, $48M contract extension in the offseason. They also have A.J. Dillon behind him, who should take a jump in his 2nd season, and rookie Kylin Hill at 3rd string, who impressed a lot in the preseason. They may lean a bit more on the running game this year than they did last year, particularly in the red zone, so that could also contribute to Rodgers’ touchdown totals coming down. Their offense can still be really good, even if Rodgers doesn’t throw quite as many touchdowns.

As far as the interceptions, Rodgers just doesn’t throw them. Last season, he had the lowest INT rate in the league for the 3rd season in a row and the 5th time of his career, throwing just 5 INTs in 526 pass attempts. He hasn’t thrown more than 8 INTs in a season since 2010, and even with the extra game, he should still only throw 5-7 of them. If he can finish with 35-40 TDs, 5-7 INTs, and 4200+ yards, Rodgers should be in the MVP conversation again this season.

Davante Adams tallies 1600+ receiving yards

Yes, I said 1600. Only 6 players since 2004 have reached that many yards in a season, but Davante Adams could certainly join that list. The only thing stopping him is his inability to play a full season, as he consistently misses just a few games each year. His top 2 seasons in terms of yards have been 2018 (1386 yards in 15 games) and 2020 (1374 yards in 14 games). His 17-game pace last season put him at 1668 yards, so he clearly can do it if he plays every game.

Adams has become arguably the best receiver in the NFL and is the clear #1 option on one of the best offenses in football with one of the best quarterbacks in football. There is no reason to believe he can’t potentially have a historic season, especially with the 17-game season now. He has averaged an absurd 10.9 targets per game over the last 3 seasons and 8.4 yards per target. The volume is there, the talent is there, the production is there… now it’s just a matter of whether he plays every game.

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combine for 20 rushing TDs

As mentioned earlier, I do believe Aaron Rodgers’ touchdown numbers will go down a bit compared to the absurdly high touchdown rate he had last year. The Packers ran the 5th most plays from inside the opponents’ 5 yard line in the league last season, yet they only ran the ball on 39% of those plays (2nd lowest percentage in the league). Aaron Rodgers had a ton of passing touchdowns that easily could have been rushing touchdowns, and yet Aaron Jones still finished with 9 rushing touchdowns on the year.

The offense should be in the red zone a ton again, leading to a bunch of touchdown opportunities. Assuming some of those short pass touchdowns turn into rushing touchdowns and A.J. Dillon gets used on the goal line, the two could definitely reach 20 rushing touchdowns on the season combined, especially with the additional 17th game now. My guess would be 13+ touchdowns for Jones and 7+ for AJ Dillon.

Lazard and MVS each finish with 600+ yards

There is still no clear WR2 on the Packers behind Davante Adams, and I don’t think that will change this season. However, I think that both Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling can still both have very productive seasons without one of them totally breaking out.

Lazard missed 6 games last season due to injury, but still finished the season with 451 yards in 10 games (45 per game and 765 per 17 games). When on the field, he was much more consistent than MVS, who had some big games and splash plays combined with some extremely quiet games and plenty of drops. Even with his inconsistencies and only catching 52.4% of his targets, Valdes-Scantling still finished the season with 690 receiving yards on just 33 catches. His 20.9 yards per catch were the highest of any player in the league last season, as well as his 18.3 air yards per target.

If he can clean up his mistakes and become a more consistent option for Rodgers, MVS should definitely be able to reach 700 yards this season with his big-play ability. He had 24 targets last season of 20+ air yards, compared to the more steady option of Lazard, who had just 7 such targets but caught a much higher percentage of his overall targets (71.7%). The ceiling for MVS is a lot higher, but the consistency of Lazard is much better. I don’t think either of them take a massive jump because they each have their limitations and Davante Adams’ volume will make it hard for them to do so, but if both stay healthy, 600 yards for each of them is well within reach.

Rashan Gary records 8+ sacks

Gary has the potential to really break out this season after he improved a lot last year, going from playing 24% of the defensive snaps in 2019 to 44% last season. Despite playing under half the snaps, he finished the season 2nd on the team in both pressures and sacks. He was PFFs highest-graded edge defender from week 16 on, and really showed a lot of improvement as the season progressed. For the entire season, he was 15th out of 121 edge rushers in pass rush productivity, and 19th out of 121 in run stop rate. His playing time should increase even more this season and Za’Darius Smith is banged up to start the year, so look for him to take a leap and go from 5 sacks last year to 8-10 this year, contributing to a scary Packers pass rush unit. The coaching staff has been speaking very highly of him, and everything points to him potentially having a big year.

Packers return to the NFC Championship Game

For the 3rd straight season, I believe the Packers will be in the NFC Championship Game. It’s tough to predict anything beyond that because it largely depends on matchups and the way the playoff bracket is set up, but I am confident in saying that they will get back to where they were last season. They still have their weaknesses on defense (linebackers, 2nd cornerback) and their offensive line is likely going to take a small step back, so I will need to see some things before I can safely predict they will win it all. With that being said, they are going to remain one of the best teams and offenses in the NFL, and although the NFC is difficult with the Rams, Bucs, 49ers, Seahawks, and others, they are still one of the teams to beat in the NFC. Hopefully this can be the year they get over the hump and reach the Super Bowl.