Why This NFC Championship Game Is Nothing Like Last Year’s
It was around this time last year that the Packers were blown out by the 49ers in the NFC Championship after being blown out by them in the regular season as well.
Fast forward a year, and some people seem to think we might be seeing the same type of story again. The Packers now play the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship, a team that demolished Green Bay in week 6 earlier this season, 38-10. The Tampa Bay defense swarmed Green Bay’s offense in that game, much like the Niners defense did in both games last year.
Is this just another team that Green Bay simply doesn’t match up against? After the week 6 game, I was thinking that might be the case. Tampa Bay seemed like an elite team with an elite defense who could slow our offense down and had enough weapons offensively to beat us. I said to myself at the time, “I hope we don’t have to face them in the playoffs.”
However, things have changed since that game all the way back in October, and we know a lot more about each team now than we knew then. Let’s start with what we’ve learned about the Packers.
Well, we learned that this offense is legit. Like, super good. As much as I hate disregarding a game as a fluke or saying that it didn’t mean anything, the Packers pretty much proved the offensive performance against Tampa Bay to be a fluke. At the time, it was thought that maybe the Packers offense wasn’t able to beat good defenses with a good pass rush. However, since then, the Packers have scored 34 against the Niners, 31 against the Colts, 41 and 35 against the Bears, and now 32 against the Rams. Not to mention they had already scored 37 against New Orleans before that Bucs game.
The Packers were #1 in offensive EPA/Play the first 5 weeks of the season (0.299), then the Bucs game happened, and then they followed it up by being #1 again for the rest of the season after that. The thing was particularly fluky was how bad their passing offense was. On pass plays, the Packers averaged -0.36 EPA/Play against Tampa Bay, but never came close to that number for the rest of the season. Here are their passing performances this season (blue line is average):
Clearly, the Bucs game was nothing like any of their other games. Only 1 other time were they even below average as a passing offense.
Compare this to last year with the Niners, and it is completely different. In the regular season game against the Niners, they averaged -0.19 passing EPA/Play, but were really bad several other times:
And almost all of their offensive production in that second Niners game came when the game was already out of reach.
The offense last year showed over and over again that they were not that good, with just a few great performances. This year, it has been the complete opposite… they’ve shown over and over again that they are great, with just a few bad/mediocre performances.
Not only has the Packers offense proven to be elite outside of that game, but the Buccaneers defense has shown that they are not elite as they were early in the season. Here are their rankings in EPA/Play allowed in the first vs second half of the season:
Weeks 1-7 Weeks 8-17
Overall D 1st 16th
Pass D 2nd 19th
Run D 1st 5th
As you can see, their defense was elite up until around November, but since then they have been average, especially against the pass. Meanwhile, the Rams were 1st overall, 2nd against the pass, and 1st against the rush in the second half of the season. If the Packers just put up 32 on the Rams, they should not be worried about the Bucs.
Yet another difference between the matchup with the 49ers last year and the Bucs this year is how those losses unfolded. In both games against the 49ers last season, the Packers fell behind right away and almost never had a chance. In the first half of those 2 games combined, they had 10 punts, 2 fumbles, 2 interceptions, and 0 points on their 14 drives. It was 23-0 at halftime of the regular season game and 27-0 at halftime of the NFC Championship. Yikes.
Now, yes, the Packers did end up getting blown out by the Bucs, but they actually started the game well. On their first drive, they had a 10-play field goal drive to go up 3-0. After forcing a punt, they went 80 yards on 11 plays for a touchdown. So, they were up 10-0 early in the 2nd quarter and moving the ball well.
Then, the two interceptions happened and threw everything off. All of a sudden it was 14-10 Bucs, Rodgers started missing throws, the O-Line started getting dominated, and things got out of hand fast. Before anyone knew it, the Bucs were up 28-10 at halftime and ended up winning 38-10. Remember, the Packers were up 10-0 early in the 2nd quarter. It was a game that was going fine until the interceptions turned it into a weird game, unlike the 49ers games that were complete domination from beginning to end. As long as the Packers don’t have any huge turnovers like they did in the first matchup, they should be fine.
Lastly, this game is in Lambeau. The Bucs offense can still play well there, but does anyone believe that the Packers offense is going to be thrown off or stopped like they were in week 6? Not at Lambeau. Under Aaron Rodgers (since 2008), the Packers have fallen behind by 20+ points in 19 total games. 17 of those were on the road, only 2 were at home. There is basically no chance they will let this game get out of hand like they did against the Bucs this year or the Niners last year… it just never happens at Lambeau.
It feels like the worst case scenario for this game is that the Packers lose a close one, which is much different from last year’s NFC Championship. The Niners really had the Packers’ number in both games, whereas the game in week 6 this year looks a lot like a fluke. With the way the Green Bay offense and Tamba Bay defense have played since that game, Packers fans should be confident.
Don’t let the week 6 game or what happened last year worry you. This is nothing like last year. This team is different, this matchup is different, and hopefully the result will be different.
