Debunking This One Crazy Stat About Aaron Rodgers
We see dumb stats all over the place. People can manipulate and change a criteria to make anyone look as good or bad as they want.
But perhaps one stat is the most misleading of them all:
This stat really is not worth my time to even write this. I mean, do I really need to argue that Aaron Rodgers is clutch? However, I have time to do some research and dive deeper, so I’m going to write this anyways just to set the record straight.
First of all, this stat is not actually true, as you’ll see with a couple examples below.
Next, there are tons of other examples where Rodgers was super clutch (against good teams), but they somehow wiggled their way out of the criteria for this stat.
Here are a bunch of examples of why this stat is dumb:
1) 2008 Week 9: The undefeated Titans lead the Packers by 3 in the 4th quarter. Rodgers leads a game-tying drive with 5 minutes left and the game ends up going to OT. He never touches the ball in overtime and the Packers lose.
2) 2009 Week 1: Bears go up by 2 with 2:35 left. Rodgers then throws a 50-yard TD to Greg Jennings to win the game. This was week 1 and the Bears were 0-0 (not a winning record even though it was impossible for them to have one yet), so it doesn’t count towards the stat.
3) 2010 Week 12: Packers trail the Falcons (who have a record of 8-2) by 7 with 6 minutes remaining. Rodgers leads a game-tying drive capped off by a 10-yard TD to Jordy with just over a minute left. The Falcons then kick the game-winning field goal with 2 seconds left and the Packers lose.
4) 2010 Week 17: Packers and Bears are tied heading into the 4th quarter. The Bears are 10-5 and the Packers need to win to go to the playoffs. Rodgers leads a game-winning drive, but the game was tied (Packers weren’t trailing by more than 1), so it doesn’t count towards the stat.
5) 2011 Week 13: Giants (who had a winning record and ended up winning the Super Bowl) tie the game with 0:58 left. Rodgers then puts together a game-winning drive in that time, but they were tied (not trailing by more than 1), so it doesn’t count towards the stat.
6) 2012 Week 5: The Colts (who finished the season 11-5) lead the Packers 22-21 in the 4th, then Rodgers throws a TD to James Jones that puts Green Bay up 5 with 4:30 remaining. The Colts then go down and score with 30 seconds left to go up 3. Rodgers leads another potential game-tying drive in just 30 seconds, but Crosby misses the game-tying field goal and the Packers lose. 2 clutch drives, still loses.
7) 2012 Week 17: Packers trail the Vikings (who are 9-6) by 7 in the 4th. Rodgers ties the game on a pass to Jordy with 3 minutes remaining. He never sees the ball again.
8) 2013 Week 17: With a playoff berth on the line, the Packers trail the Bears (who have a winning record) by 8 with 12 minutes left. They come back and win on the famous Rodgers throw to Cobb on 4th & 8. This one should count towards the stat.
9) 2013 Wild Card: Packers trail the 49ers by 3 with 10 minutes remaining. Rodgers leads a game-tying drive and then never sees the ball again.
10) 2014 Week 6: Down 24-20 against the Dolphins with 2 minutes to go, Rodgers takes the Packers down the field and throws the game winning TD with 3 seconds left. The Dolphins were 2-2 (.500 but not above .500) at the time though, so it doesn’t count towards the stat.
11) 2014 Divisional: Packers trail the Cowboys 21-20 in the 4th, and then Rodgers throws a TD to Richard Rodgers to put the Packers up 5 and Green Bay ends up winning. Problem is that they only trailed by 1 (not more than 1), so it doesn’t count towards the stat.
12) 2014 NFC Championship: After their famous collapse, the Packers find themselves trailing 22-19 with 1:25 left. Rodgers rallies and is able to put together a game-tying drive that sends the game to OT. He never sees the ball again.
13) 2015 Week 2: Packers trail the Seahawks by 1 point entering the 4th quarter. They end up winning by 10. However, it was only a 1 point deficit (needs to be more than 1) and the Seahawks were 0-1 at the time (even though they finish the season 10-6), so it doesn’t count towards the stat.
14) 2015 Divisional: Packers are down 7 to Arizona. It’s 4th & 20 with 55 seconds left and the Packers need to go 96 yards to tie the game. Rodgers delivers 2 of the best throws ever to send the game to OT, and then doesn’t see the ball again.
15) 2016 Week 13: Packers need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The game is tied going into the 4th quarter, but Rodgers delivers 2 big scoring drives late and the Packers win 21-13. The Texans had a winning record, but the game was tied (Packers weren’t trailing by more than 1 point), so it doesn’t count towards the stat.
16) 2016 Divisional: Tied game against Dallas, 3rd & 20 with 12 seconds left. Rodgers delivers another one of the greatest throws we’ve ever seen to Jared Cook to set up the game-winning field goal. The game was tied (Packers weren’t trailing by more than 1 point), so it doesn’t count towards the stat.
17) 2017 Week 5: Cowboys score to go up 31-28 with 1:13 left. Rodgers puts together a game winning drive and throws a TD to Adams with 11 seconds left for the win. Cowboys had a 2-2 record at the time (not above .500), so it doesn’t count towards the stat, even though they finished the year above .500
18) 2018 Week 1: Packers trail the Bears 20-0 in the 3rd quarter and 20-3 in the 4th quarter. Rodgers comes back from injury at halftime and puts together the crazy comeback to win. However, this was week 1, so the Bears were 0-0 and couldn’t have a winning record yet (even though they finish the season 12-4), so it doesn’t count towards the stat.
19) 2019 Week 6: Packers trail the Lions (who are 2-1-1 at the time) by 9 with 10 minutes left in the 4th. Rodgers executes the comeback and the Packers win on a game-winning field goal. This one should count towards the stat.
20) 2019 Week 8: Chiefs and Packers are tied with 9 minutes left. Rodgers throws a 67 yard TD to Aaron Jones for the game-winning touchdown. The Chiefs were 5-2 at the time, but the game was tied (Packers weren’t trailing by more than 1) so it doesn’t count towards the stat.
21) 2020 Week 12: Packers trail the Colts 31-28 with 1:25 left and are at their own 6-yard line. Rodgers puts together a game-tying drive, but the Packers lose after a Marquez Valdes-Scantling fumble in OT.
And this isn’t even close to including all of his game-winning/game-tying drives and comebacks. These are just the ones against good teams or ones that came very close to meeting the criteria but narrowly missed. For example, I didn’t even include his hail mary against Detroit because Detroit wasn’t close to having a winning record.
The main takeaway from this is that clutch is clutch, no matter what the exact situation is. Was that hail mary I just mentioned not clutch simply because it was against Detroit (even though it was actually a huge game for both teams)? Do clutch plays in a tied game not mean anything? Or in a game you are trailing by exactly 1 point? Or in a week 1 game where the opponent has no opportunity at having a winning record yet? Are game-tying drives not clutch?
Rodgers has shown his clutch gene time and time again, but this cherry-picked stat leaves those games off. Not to mention it includes several games that are unfair to include, such as the Fail Mary.
It appears as though when the stat talks about “winning record”, it means the opponent has a winning record AFTER the game is completed, which makes it even worse. This means that for any team Rodgers plays that is exactly .500 at the time of the game, if he loses it will count towards the stat (they will move above .500) and if he wins it will not count (they fall below .500). It also means that if Rodgers comes back to beat a team that is 1 game over .500 (such as 2013 week 17 or 2019 week 6), it will not count because that team will fall to exactly .500. Rodgers is therefore put into a lot of lose-lose situations for this stat, where if he wins it doesn’t count and if he loses it does.
So with the Fail Mary game (which the Packers shouldn’t have even lost), the Seahawks were 1-1 at the time of the game. Rodgers actually had a 4th quarter comeback, but the Seahawks ended up winning. If the Fail Mary doesn’t happen and the Packers win, it would not count towards this stat because Seattle would fall below .500. Instead, the Fail Mary happens, the Packers lose, the Seahawks move to above .500, and it counts as a loss towards the stat. Just blatantly unfair.
I do have to give some props to whoever originally found this stat, because it is impressive to find those perfect cutoff points and criteria for Rodgers to go 0-42. But the reality is that the stat is useless and incredibly misleading.
And once again, what are we really arguing here? Everyone who has ever watched him play knows that Aaron Rodgers is clutch.
Now I wouldn’t feel like I’ve done my job here unless I also provided facts that proves his clutchness and comeback ability. So, here is how QBs since 2008 (when Rodgers entered the league) rank in terms of EPA/Play when they have a less than 40% win probability in the 4th/OT and need to come back (Min. 500 plays):
Aaron Rodgers — 0.240
Russell Wilson — 0.236
Drew Brees — 0.196
Tony Romo — 0.192
Tom Brady — 0.144
That’s more like it.
