Top 5 NBA MVP Candidates (February 2021)
The NBA season is in full swing with the all-star break just about a week away, and naturally the NBA MVP talk is starting to heat up as well. So here is a brief look at my current top 5 MVP candidates if the season ended today:
5. Kevin Durant
Nobody was quite sure (myself included) whether or not KD could come back from his achilles injury and still be the same player he used to be, but he has. The raw numbers are pretty ridiculous, as he is averaging 29.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5.2 assists on 53% FG and 45% from three. His eFG% is 60% and his TS% is 66%, both incredibly high numbers. It is not normal to be shooting those percentages while still averaging 30 points per game, but that’s what he’s doing
The one thing that keeps KD from being higher on this list is that his advanced impact stats don’t jump off the page, but they are still solid. Him playing alongside two other superstars probably will not help these numbers and will ultimately hurt him in the MVP race, but he has absolutely proven that he is still one of the best players in the world after the injury.
4. LeBron James
LeBron continues to dominate even in his 18th season at age 36. His longevity and ability to still remain one of the elite players in the NBA year in and year out is remarkable. He’s currently averaging 26.9 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per 36 minutes, and his efficiency is up as well. His 40.9 three-point percentage would be the highest of his career if it keeps up, and it’s even more impressive considering he is taking more threes this year than ever before. His three-point attempts per game have been increasing since 2015 and now reached their high point in 2020-21.
Year 3PA/G
2015 3.7
2016 4.6
2017 5.0
2018 5.9
2019 6.3
2020 6.7
He’s taking 3 more threes per game than he was in 2015, and yet is still making 10% more of them. This has brought his eFG% and TS% back up to borderline elite numbers (57% eFG and 60% TS).
LeBron is also 4th in both Win Shares and BPM (Box Plus-Minus), as well as 2nd in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), and he has led the Lakers to a 17-6 record, 2nd best in the NBA.
Ranking him 4th isn’t meant to be a knock on LeBron, and it shouldn’t be taken that way. He has been fantastic, and just like last year, if this were an award for the most IMPRESSIVE season based on age, he should win. But it isn’t, it’s the award for the best regular season, and there have been 2-3 other players who have simply been better.
3. Kawhi Leonard
Kawhi has flown somewhat under the radar this season, which is very on-brand for him, but he’s been spectacular. He’s scoring 27.5 points, grabbing 4.9 rebounds, and dishing out 5.8 assists per 36 minutes on 51% FG and 38% from three.
One of the more remarkable things is that he is averaging just 1.8 turnovers per 36 minutes, which is unheard of for a player with his usage. He very rarely hurts the team, as he’s had great efficiency to go along with the low turnovers. His eFG% and TS% numbers are both up about 3-4% from last year, and his PER (Player Efficiency Rating) is 3rd in the league behind only Embiid and Jokic.
He is also 6th in BPM, 2nd in Win Shares, 5th in VORP, and the Clippers have the 3rd best record in the league. Los Angeles is also a whopping 18.3 points per 100 possessions better with Kawhi on the court vs off the court, which is higher than any of these other MVP candidates. There is no doubt he is a top candidate for MVP so far.
2. Nikola Jokic
Jokic seems to be either 1st or 2nd on everyone’s MVP list right now, and rightfully so. The offensive season he is putting together is beyond impressive, and both the basic and advanced stats show it. He’s averaging 26.3 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per 36 minutes on 57% FG and 38% from three, and his overall offensive skillset has been on display all year. He continues to show that he is easily the best passing big man in the game and one of the best we’ve ever seen, and his impact is tremendous.
As far as the advanced stats go, he is 2nd in PER, 1st in Win Shares, 1st in BPM, and 1st in VORP. Not bad.
So why is he 2nd? The only reason is that the Nuggets are only 12-9 and are 1 game away from being out of the Western Conference playoffs. If the Nuggets are able to win some more games, I think he’ll move into 1st as long as he continues this level of play. I do believe he has been slightly better than Embiid, but it’s hard for me to choose someone for MVP when their team is only a borderline playoff team right now.
1. Joel Embiid
Embiid has really taken that next step as a shooter this year, and it has made him a nearly unguardable offensive player. His averages per 36 minutes are 32.9 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, and the efficiency is what really has taken a leap. He’s up to 56% from the field and 42% from three, and he’s also shooting an incredible 55% on mid-range shots. Let’s look at how those numbers compare to his other seasons:
FG% 3P% Mid-range %
2016 47% 37% 41%
2017 48% 31% 44%
2018 48% 30% 36%
2019 48% 33% 40%
2020 56% 42% 55%
His eFG% is at 60% this year after never being higher than 52% in any other year, and his TS% is a ridiculous 68% after never being higher than 59%. It’s clear that his overall shooting efficiency is much higher than it has ever been.
Embiid is also getting to the line a ton. His 11.1 free throw attempts per game are the highest of his career and currently the most for anyone in the league, and he’s hitting 85% of them. He is torching defenses from the outside with his mid-range and three-point shooting, and when he goes into the paint, the defense is usually forced to foul him, and he knocks down his free throws. There’s really no way to guard him right now.
For some advanced metrics, he is 1st in Win Shares per 48 minutes, 2nd in BPM, and 1st in PER.
The Sixers are currently leading the East, and they are 15-3 when Embiid plays this year and 1-4 when he doesn’t. If that doesn’t tell you something about how valuable he has been, I don’t know what will. He is my MVP so far.
