Top 5 NBA MVP Candidates (April 2021)

Another month has passed, and it’s time to look at how the NBA MVP ladder has changed in the last 4-5 weeks.

With about 70% of the season complete, here is where things stand.

5. Joel Embiid

Ranking last month: 1st

Per 36 stats:

33.0 PTS

12.6 REB

3.6 AST

55.6% eFG

64.7% TS

Unfortunately, Embiid suffered a knee injury against the Wizards on March 12th that sidelined him for 3 weeks, and it probably cost him his chance at MVP. He has played just 32 games now this year, which is only 64% of the Sixers’ games. That is simply not enough for him to have any chance.

This spot could easily go to Harden or LeBron, but they also have not played a ton of games (34 for Harden, 41 for LeBron), so it goes to Embiid simply because of how awesome he was before the injury.

4. Stephen Curry

Ranking last month: 4th

Per 36 stats:

31.3 PTS

5.8 REB

6.4 AST

59.1% eFG

64.2% TS

Curry has missed 7 games in the past month, and the Warriors are now 10th in the West standings, so there is no way he wins this thing. However, the Warriors are just so incredibly bad when he isn’t playing that I think he still deserves to be top 5. They are now 1-7 without Curry this year and 22-20 with him. That alone makes him worthy of consideration, as he has carried a bad team on his back all year.

If you want to talk strictly about value and how important a player is to their team, Curry might be number 1.

Even with the increased burden on him, he is still shooting 48% from the field, 41% from three, and 93% from the line. He’s also ranked 1st this year in Wins Added according to RPM. The best point guard in the game.

3. Damian Lillard

Ranking last month: not ranked

Per 36 stats:

29.7 PTS

4.3 REB

7.7 AST

55.0% eFG

62.3% TS

Coming in just ahead of Curry is Damian Lillard, who, like Curry, has had to carry a team without his backcourt mate for a large part of the year. Lillard has the Blazers sitting at 6th in the West currently with a 30-19 record, and CJ McCollum is back now, so they should be safely in the playoffs with a chance to move up even higher.

Of course, we all know what Dame does in the clutch, and he has an insane 76.9 effective field goal percentage on shots crucial to the game outcome.

Steph has been better overall than Lillard this year, but the Blazers are going to finish way ahead of the Warriors at the end of the year, and that matters for the MVP race. Dame is the one guy outside of the top 2 who has a very realistic shot at winning it if he can keep up this level of play and the Blazers move into the top 5 in the West. In fact, it’s probably safe to say he has a better chance of actually winning it than the guy who is next on this list.

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Last month rank: 3rd

Per 36 stats:

30.5 PTS

12.6 REB

6.5 AST

59.5% eFG

63.1% TS

Giannis has a mini-injury that has kept him out of a couple games lately and seemed to be impacting his play on the court a bit, but he is still playing like an MVP. Over his last 10 games, he is averaging 28 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists, and his shooting numbers continue to improve. He has shot 60% from the field, 37% from three, and 80% from the line in the last month, and his improvements from three and from the free throw line have been enough to keep him in the MVP race.

The Bucks are just 2 games out of first place in the East right now, and if they get the top seed again, Giannis might have a solid shot to become the first player to win 3 straight MVPs since Larry Bird in the 80s.

1. Nikola Jokic

Last month rank: 2nd

Per 36 stats:

26.6 PTS

11.1 REB

8.7 AST

60.6% eFG

64.5% TS

Jokic has been the most consistent player all season, and he just keeps humming along. He has not missed a game yet this year, and it feels like for every stretch that you look at, he’s averaging about 25 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists on 55+% from the field and 40+% from three. He hasn’t really had any bad stretches.

Jokic is also still leading in a lot of the advanced stats, including VORP, BPM, Win Shares, LEBRON, and LEBRON Wins Added.

The injury to Embiid has made him the clear frontrunner to win MVP, and if the Nuggets can remain in the top 4 in the West (they could certainly move even higher), the Joker should be close to a lock.