A Giannis Antetokounmpo Appreciation Post
We could all see it coming. After winning MVP in back-to-back seasons, it was going to be almost impossible for Giannis to win it again this year. Voter fatigue is real, and even if he put together an equally impressive season, it would be someone else’s turn to win it. It also didn’t help that the Bucks fell short in the playoffs both years, and people questioned whether he truly was one of the best players in the league. After a somewhat slow start to this season, it looked like there was no possible way Giannis would have any chance to even be in the conversation again.
Then he flipped the switch. Here are Giannis’ numbers in his first 6 games compared to the rest of the season:
First 6 games Last 34 games
PTS/G 23.5 30.0
REB/G 11.7 11.7
AST/G 5.8 6.5
eFG% 55% 64%
TS% 51% 61%
Record 3-3 23-11
For about 90% of the season, Giannis has been an MVP-level player. On top of that, he just keeps getting better as the season goes on. Over his last 18 games, he is averaging 31.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.1 assists on 56% FG and 32% 3P.
In his last 5 games, his averages are 29.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists on 60% FG and 41% 3P. Read that again, because it’s pretty ridiculous.
In order to once again be recognized as an MVP candidate, he had to be GREAT. The fact that he has even been able to generate any kind of MVP talk again just proves how awesome he’s been. He is averaging more points per 36 minutes than Damian Lillard, more rebounds per 36 minutes than Nikola Jokic, and more assists per 36 minutes than Stephen Curry.
Giannis has also improved one of the biggest weaknesses in his game: free throw shooting.
On January 15th against the Mavericks, he shot an embarrassing 1-for-10 from the line, dropping his season free throw percentage to 57.5% at the time. He seemed to have a mental block that many wondered if he would ever be able to get past, and it was something that needed to improve if the Bucks wanted to be able to win in the playoffs.
Well, since that day, Giannis is shooting 72.4% from the line in 28 games. This is not just a 5 or 10 game sample, it is over 2 months. Since February 1st, he is shooting 75.6%, and the consistency has been a complete turnaround from what Bucks fans are used to. Here are his numbers of bad (under 60% FT) and good (over 80% FT) games before and after February 1st.
Under 60% Over 80%
First 18 games 8 games 2 games
Last 22 games 2 games 9 games
Under 60% from the line in just 2 of his last 22 games. That is a very, very good sign for the playoffs. This is a large enough sample size to believe that he might just be a solid free throw shooter now, and he could be past that mental block. When teams are aggressive at putting up the wall in the playoffs and Giannis’ easiest opportunities to score are from free throws, it is extremely important that he knocks them down somewhat consistently. He is doing that now.
Another thing that Giannis continues to develop is his playmaking and decision-making. He has always been a very solid passer, but keeps getting better with his ability to read defenses. In the first 17 games of the season (right up until about February), he was averaging 5.5 assists and 4.0 turnovers per game (1.4 assists per turnover). In the 23 games since then, he is averaging 7.0 assists and 3.4 turnovers per game (2.1 assists per turnover). That is a pretty major improvement. He has 10+ assists in 4 of his last 5 games and has been doing it all lately on the offensive end.
He is committing way fewer charges as well. In the first 17 games this season, Giannis was committing 0.71 charges per game, by far the most in the NBA. Since then, he is at just 0.3 per game. Not only is he making better reads and better passes, but he is attacking under control and limiting offensive fouls. He averaged a whopping 0.89 charges per game in the playoffs last year, and his ability to drive without barreling into defenders will be key in making the Bucks’ offense tougher to stop when the wall is set up.
His improvements as a playmaker and decision-maker have made him look even more comfortable as the primary ball handler, and he looks like someone who is more ready to face playoff defenses. It also helps that the Bucks’ shooters are converting his passes into assists at a much higher rate this year.
Now, let’s talk about how he’s been in big moments. In “clutch” situations this year (score within 5 points and under 5 minutes remaining), Giannis is shooting 60.7% (17/28). He also is 4th in the league in 4th quarter points per game, behind only Lillard, Durant, and Embiid. He has been great at closing out games and taking over late, and it helps that the Bucks are, in general, using him as more of a screener/roller late in games. Even when they aren’t, he has been reliable at getting important buckets late.
He hasn’t had a ton of “takeover” games in the playoffs, but it seems those could be coming more this year.
Lastly, the advanced metrics really tell how great Giannis has been and prove that he should be a top MVP candidate. He is 2nd in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), 2nd in BPM (Box Plus Minus), 2nd in Win Shares, 3rd in RPM (Real Plus Minus), 2nd in Wins Added, and 1st in LEBRON (It may sound like a weird stat, but you can read more about it here).
(graph via bball-index.com)
When you look at both offense and defense, Giannis has once again been the best and arguably most valuable player in the league this year.
It might be boring to keep hearing that, but it’s the truth.
He definitely needs to be more successful in the playoffs in order to be recognized as THE best player in the league, but that doesn’t mean we should just gloss over what he’s doing every year.
With the way he and the Bucks are playing, the playoff success could be coming soon.
