The Incredible Turnaround of Aaron Rodgers

You can admit it… after last season, we all had the thought.

Is Aaron Rodgers…maybe…just barely…declining?

It appeared that way. The numbers showed it, the eye test showed it, and he just didn’t seem to be that ELITE quarterback we had been used to. Still good, just not an MVP level player anymore. Even I — the biggest Rodgers defender and supporter that I know — questioned whether he would ever be at that insane level again. And yes, we were spoiled by how amazing he was for so long, but he really was not elite anymore. The accuracy was a little off, he seemed uncomfortable, he didn’t trust his receivers very much, and the overall efficiency and productivity just wasn’t even close to the same.

He did show flashes. The game against the Raiders last year where he had 6 TD and a perfect passer rating, the insane throw to Jamaal Williams in the back of the end zone against the Chiefs, the 2019 playoff game against Seattle… he showed he was capable of being an elite QB on any given day or any given snap, but it seemed the consistency just wasn’t there anymore. And maybe it would never be there again.

On top of this, Green Bay then decided not to get him any offensive weapons in the 2020 draft. Was it possible that even they believed he was close to done? We still don’t completely know that answer, but what we do know is that something definitely changed. Perhaps the draft ignited a fire under Rodgers… or maybe it was just that he needed a year in LaFleur’s offense to really get comfortable… or it could be contributed to him going back and watching 2011 film of himself in the offseason… or maybe just a combination of all of these things. Whatever it was, it worked. And it worked even better than I think anyone could have imagined.

Not only did Rodgers come out this season and play well, he played as well as he EVER has. And for a two-time MVP who had one of the greatest peaks of any QB in NFL history, that is certainly saying something. After throwing for 51 touchdowns in 2018 and 2019 combined, Rodgers threw for 48 this year alone — the most in a season in his career. On top of that, he had an absurd 13 games where he threw 3+ touchdowns this season (tied for the most in NFL history), a mark that he only hit 5 times in the 2 previous seasons combined. But that doesn’t tell the whole story, as the efficiency and overall productiveness is what really shows the difference. Here are his ranks the past 3 seasons in some of the most important statistics to measure QB play:

2018 2019 2020

AY/A 9th 12th 1st

ANY/A 10th 11th 1st

EPA/Play 13th 10th 1st

Success Rate 19th 19th 2nd

CPOE 27th 28th 3rd

QBR 16th 20th 1st

Rodgers went from a slightly above average QB to the best QB in the NFL again. From 2015-2019, he averaged 0.12 EPA per play, and this year he averaged 0.35. So basically, he was 3x as efficient and productive as he had been in the previous 5 seasons. His success rate also went up from a poor 46.1% in 2015-2019 to an elite 54.5% in 2020. A good amount of credit certainly has to go to LaFleur and his scheme /play-calling, but Rodgers just simply looked like a different man this year (but also the same man that we saw in his prime). I believed he could still put it together and put together some solid years, but I never expected him to win another MVP and put up a season that rivals his other MVP seasons. Speaking of which, let’s look at the above statistics for each of his MVP seasons (assuming he wins it this year as well):

2011 2014 2020

AY/A 10.5 9.5 9.6

ANY/A 9.4 8.7 8.9

EPA/Play 0.40 0.33 0.35

Success Rate 53.9% 53.8% 54.5%

CPOE 9.0 3.1 7.1

QBR 83.8 77.8 84.4

So yeah, Rodgers (in my opinion based on the stats) didn’t quite reach his 2011 season, but he still had the 2nd best season of his career and a top 5-10 QB season of all time probably. And again, the fact that he could even come close to his 2011 season is something that would’ve been almost unfathomable a year ago. He finishes 3rd all time in total QBR for a season (84.4) and 2nd all time, only behind himself, in passer rating for a season (121.5). Ridiculous.

He doesn’t have anything close to the weapons he had in 2011, and he isn’t as dangerous of a runner or escape artist as he was 10 years ago, but he was still able to put together an (almost) equally efficient and productive season, and that is what makes this particular season so impressive. Adams was awesome, Tonyan stepped up, and MVS/Lazard had some nice moments, but let’s be real: this was pretty much all 37-year-old Aaron Rodgers making this offense great again. In 2011, Matt Flynn started in week 17 and threw for 480 yards and 6 touchdowns, do you really think any backup would be able to do that with this current offense? When you take his receiving core and age into account, you could argue this was Rodgers’ most impressive year.

Looking back on it, there were certainly reasons why Rodgers' performance may have dipped for a little while. In 2015 (arguably his worst year), he didn’t have Jordy. In 2018, he was injured all year. In 2019, it was his first year in a new offense. Those are all legitimate reasons for his play to drop and for him not to play like an elite QB anymore. However, it was reaching that point where people, including myself, began to run out of patience and wonder if this was just who Aaron was now. Were the peak days behind him and he was simply just an “above average” QB now? Well, I think any questions we had were answered this year.

This was an important year for Aaron. It was the first time in a long time where I think people seriously doubted and questioned him. Even his own team it appears doubted him just a bit. There was more negative energy surrounding him these past couple years than ever before, and he knew it. Rumors were flying around about his personal life, his relationship with Mike McCarthy, and how his teammates perceived him, and on top of that his play had fallen.

This season, Aaron almost completely changed the perception that people have of him as both a player and person. He seems to (and claims to) be having more fun than ever both on and off the field, and he said early on that he has a “new and increased love of life” this year. He shows his personality every Tuesday on the Pat McAfee Show, has been funnier and more relaxed in interviews, does a lot of funny touchdown celebrations, and just seems to be having more fun both on and off the football field. I think it’s safe to say he is a little more R-E-L-A-Xed (see what I did there?). Whether he is attempting to do so or not, Rodgers has become much more likeable to a lot of people this year, and I do believe his positive energy has translated positively to his play.

So I think we can all learn an important lesson here: Never Doubt Aaron Rodgers. People doubted him in the 2005 draft when he slid to 24th overall, he was doubted when he took over for Brett Favre in 2008, he was doubted in 2016 before the Packers ran the table, and he was doubted this offseason when the Packers traded up to draft his backup in the first round. My dad the other day told me, “We all know what happens when opposing teams mock the belt, and the way I see it, everyone in the offseason was mocking the belt. And Aaron responded with a big middle finger.”

No matter what you think of him or what you thought in the offseason, one thing is clear: Aaron Rodgers is back.