5 Reasons to Be More Confident In the Bucks This Time Around
Pretty much everyone looks at the Bucks now and thinks the same thing… a good regular season team that can’t get it done in the playoffs. After back-to-back seasons finishing as the #1 team in the East yet failing to make the Finals, not many people are confident in the Bucks this year. The path to get there is also not favorable, as they likely need to go through the Heat (who eliminated the Bucks in 5 games last year), Nets (who have 3 future hall of famers), and Sixers (who had the best record in the East this year). So, why should anyone be confident or optimistic about this season for Milwaukee? Here are 5 reasons why:
1. They replaced Eric Bledsoe with Jrue Holiday
This is the most obvious reason to be optimistic compared to years past. Eric Bledsoe was consistently bad in the playoffs with Milwaukee, and one could argue that his play was a huge reason for their downfall against the Raptors and Heat. He shot 5/29 from three in the Toronto series and 3/14 from three against Miami in last year’s playoffs. As a result, the Bucks went out and acquired Jrue Holiday in the offseason, and he has been everything they could’ve hoped for.
Bledsoe was always good defensively (although Jrue is even better), but the main difference between the two has been on the offensive end. Jrue averaged 17.7 points and 6.1 assists on 57% eFG and 59% TS in this regular season. His efficiency has been awesome, shooting over 50% overall and nearly 40% from three. In terms of impact per 100 possessions, Jrue has been about 2.5x as good as Bledsoe was last year with the Bucks.
Holiday adds even more defensive versatility to the Bucks, and he can guard literally anyone on the court. He makes the lives of Giannis and company even easier on that end than Bledsoe did, and he gives the Bucks more options defensively given that he can defend bigger players in a way that Bledsoe wasn’t able to. This, combined with his efficiency, control, and decision-making offensively makes the Bucks a much bigger threat with him running the show.
2. The shooting around Giannis is better
One of the big reasons for the Bucks’ playoff losses the past 2 years was their inability to consistently knock down the open looks that Giannis created. Giannis’ teammates shot 33.7% from three in the Miami series last year and 30.8% in the Toronto series in 2019. Players like Bledsoe and Mirotic were big parts of this, and there were very few guys who could be relied on to hit outside shots when it mattered.
The Bucks adopted the “Let It Fly” mentality when Budenholzer took over in 2018, and they have always been among the league leaders in 3-point attempts since then. However, in the 2 years before this season, they were never really that great at actually shooting the ball.
2018 2019 2020
3P% league rank 15th 18th 5th
3P% outside Giannis 35.9 36.0 39.7
# players shooting 37+% 3 3 7
Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes, and Jrue Holiday are all having the best shooting seasons of their careers playing alongside Giannis for the first time. Khris Middleton continues to be an elite shooter, and Pat Connaughton has also risen to a 37% shooter. It seems more likely than ever that the Bucks will be able to make teams pay for sending multiple defenders at Giannis in the playoffs.
3. Giannis has improved his weaknesses
The 2 biggest weaknesses of Giannis’ game have been jump shooting and free throw shooting. As the year has gone on, he has improved both of these things tremendously. After shooting a career-low 63% from the line last season, Giannis started this season shooting just 59% on free throws in December and January. It was a serious issue given how often he goes to the line (most free throw attempts in the NBA). Starting in February, the switch flipped. In the following 43 games, he shot 73% on 9 free throw attempts per game, raising his season average back up close to 70% where it needs to be.
As far as jump shooting goes, Giannis has become a much more capable mid-range player as the season has gone on. In his first 44 games this year, he shot 33.1% on 2-point jumpers (51-for-154). In his final 17 games, that number shot up to 44.4% (36-for-81). For reference, Kevin Durant shot 52.7% on those shots this year.
Giannis improving as a free throw shooter and jump shooter just makes him all the more impossible to stop, and if he can keep those things going in the playoffs, it could certainly make the difference in the Bucks winning a title or not.
4. Coach Bud making some adjustments
Mike Budenholzer still does some frustrating things, but he also deserves some credit for being more willing to try out different things this year. One of those bigger adjustments has been switching more with a more versatile defense. After switching just 7% of ball screens in 2018 and 6% of ball screens last year, the Bucks are switching 19% of ball screens this year, going from among the lowest percentage in the league to the top half of the league now. Since the all-star break, their percentage of switches on ball screens is 25% (switching numbers found from this video).
Rather than just running drop coverage all the time, Milwaukee is testing out different defenses and throwing more looks at their opponents. Their ability to switch will be key against teams with a lot of dynamic scorers like the Nets, where they can run more lineups without Brook Lopez and keep everything in front of them. This is a big reason why they acquired PJ Tucker, so that they can play Giannis at center more and have lineups with 5 versatile defenders to avoid any mismatches.
Another thing is that offensively, the Bucks have made improvements in what they run down the stretch. Late in close games, they are using Giannis as a screener more with Middleton and Holiday as the ball handlers. Here, it gets Giannis a game-tying dunk with under a minute left against Phoenix:
And then here, it gets Khris a good mid-range look that gave the Bucks the lead with under a minute left against Brooklyn:
They still haven’t been perfect late in games, but overall it looks like the process of what they are doing is better. When they run pick and rolls with Giannis as the screener and Jrue or Khris as the ball handler, it very often gets someone a good look. When in need of a bucket, they need to continue to go to this, and they’ve shown more willingness to do that this year compared to last year.
Another improvement by Bud has been how much he has played the stars. All throughout last year and in the playoffs, one of the biggest criticisms was that Giannis and Khris were sitting far too much, even late in close games when the Bucks were behind. Well, this year that has changed a bit. Giannis and Khris are both playing about 3 minutes per game more than they were last season (from about 30 minutes per game to 33 per game). Last year, they combined to play over 36 minutes only 12 times all regular season. This year, they have done so 39 times.
On top of that, Jrue Holiday is also averaging 32 minutes per game and has played over 36 minutes in 15 games alone. The stars should be more prepared to play bigger minutes in this year’s playoffs, and Bud looks like he will be keeping them out their longer. Simply playing their best players more should make the Bucks a better team this time around.
5. The Bucks are not the favorites anymore
Not to take on the “nobody believes in us” role, but being somewhat of an underdog and not the heavy favorite could really help the Bucks this year. They aren’t being completely counted out, but they have nowhere near the same expectations and pressure that they faced the last 2 seasons. The Sixers were #1 in the East this year , the Nets have 3 future hall of famers, and the Heat had their number last year. The Bucks could be the team that everyone is ready to dismiss who really makes a run and gets over the hump.
It’s going to take a heck of an effort for the Bucks to win a title or even get out of the East, but there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. This team is better suited for the playoffs than those of the past 2 seasons, and although they face a difficult path, they have just as good a chance as anyone, which is all anybody can ask for.
With Giannis, Khris, and Jrue locked up for years to come, the Bucks are going to have plenty of chances at deep playoff runs. Perhaps their first run together could be the one that puts everyone on notice.
